The nuclear genie is likely to be more, not less, active in the coming years, and for reasons antedating Gulf War II. In the 1960s, many futurologists predicted that 20 or 30 countries would have the bomb by the end of the decade. This forecast didn't come close to being true because the two nuclear superpowers, the United States and the USSR, maintained what was called a "nuclear umbrella" over their respective allies, assuring them assistance, even nuclear assistance, in the event of an attack. Some countries, which might have been tempted to go nuclear, held back. Now that the Soviet Union is gone and neither the United States nor any other strong power can or will guarantee protection to every endangered regime, the motive for restraint is weakened. If North Korea goes nuclear in a serious way, Japan is likely to follow, which will compel China to boost its nuclear arsenal, which will put pressure on India to follow suit, which will make Pakistan very nervous, and on and on it goes.